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Model Predictions for Waterberg
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Tsumkwe -
Namibia: Disease Free Buffalo
Waterberg
| |
Park Count |
Model
Predictions |
| Year |
|
Number |
Rate of growth % |
| 1988 |
44 |
67 |
9.8 |
| 1989 |
72 |
73 |
9.0 |
| 1990 |
72 |
79 |
8.2 |
| 1991 |
88 |
86 |
8.9 |
| 1992 |
104 |
94 |
9.3 |
| 1993 |
|
104 |
10.6 |
| 1994 |
|
115 |
10.6 |
| 1995 |
|
128 |
11.3 |
| 1996 |
|
141 |
10.2 |
| 1997 |
|
156 |
10.6 |
| 1998 |
|
173 |
10.9
|
| 1999 |
|
189 |
9.3 |
| 2000 |
184 |
205 |
8.5 |
| 2001 |
|
221 |
7.8 |
| 2002 |
|
239 |
8.1 |
| 2003 |
|
258 |
8.0 |
| 2004 |
|
279 |
8.1 |
| 2005 |
|
300 |
7.5 |
Data is available for the years 1988-1992 and 2000. The
last estimate for the present population was 184 in the
year 2000. The introduction of 48 buffalo took place between
1981 and 1991 at an average rate of 5 per year (Erb 1992).
- Most animals came directly from Addo National Park in
South Africa
- 11 came from from Willem Pretorius Game Reserve in the
Free State in 1985-86 (presumably these animals originated
from Addo stock)
- 4 were buffalo of East African origin imported from
a Czechoslovakian Zoo in 1986.
Carrying capacity:
With an annual rainfall of about 500mm, the sustainable
density of buffalo is about 1/km2, i.e. some 400 animals
for the Park. This ceiling will soon be reached and it
can be expected that both habitats and buffalo will deteriorate
in the future if no management
actions are taken.
Model Predictions for Waterberg
Predicted estimates were developed with the aid of a population
model for buffalo.
Parameters:
- Rainfall:400-500mm
- Starting population: 48 animals biased in favour of
females and with few juveniles
The correspondence with the count data is very close. It
is to be expected that the initial growth rates will be
high whilst the population is small and the age structure
highly skewed. The growth rate starts to decline after 1998
and in the very long term (50 years) levels off at 4.2%
when the age structure is stable.
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The Tsumkwe Population
With the erection of the Veterinary
Cordon Fence in the early 1960s some 200 buffalo in
the Bushmanland area which were isolated from Botswana
by the international boundary veterinary fence.
|
Figure 12: Present distribution of Buffalo
|
Most of this group died of thirst and starvation and,
by 1988, the only survivors were 18 of the original herd
which later formed the nucleus for the present foot and
mouth disease-free herd in Tsumkwe. It is significant
that, up until the time of their quarantine in 1996, this
herd had been in regular contact with cattle without transmitting
the disease.
One animal was destroyed because it tested FMD positive
but the present herd of 68 animals is remarkably free
of various diseases
and is commercially
valuable.
Carrying Capacity:
In the low rainfall conditions of Tsumkwe the carrying
capacity is well below 1 buffalo/km2 and the present population
of 68 animals in 2,400ha is grossly overstocked (i.e.
3/km2) and is having to receive supplementary feeding.
