Substantial numbers of roan, sable and tsessebe are likely to impress game-viewing tourists and might result in a marginal increase in wildlife tourism. The effect is likely to be more pronounced in the Caprivi or Khaudum than in Etosha, which is already a guaranteed tourist destination. However, it would be difficult to attach quantitative values to this proposition. In areas where tourism is presently low in the north-east of Namibia an abundance of these species would indicate that ecosystems were in prime condition and, given this, it is very likely that most of the other large wild mammal species would also be plentiful. Thus, an effort to build up roan, sable and tsessebe numbers would indirectly result in benefits for a range of species and a multiplier effect for tourism.

A corollary to the possible enhancement which substantial populations of roan, sable and tsessebe might bring to tourism in the north-east of the country is the negative impression which their disappearance from their former range would give. For knowledgeable tourists visiting the Caprivi or Khaudum, the absence of roan, sable and tsessebe is likely to be noted unfavourably.

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Sport Hunting

Safari hunting is capable of producing competitive returns from land with less capital investment than that required for non-hunting tourism and with a lower adverse ecological impact. Roan, sable and tsessebe are all highly prized hunting trophies (sable and roan more so than tsessebe). Martin's financial anaysis (Analysis 5) shows that if the present densities of roan and tsessebe could be increased to 1/km2 and the density of sable increased to 2/km2,with all other variables remaining as they are at present, this would result in

• a five-fold increase in the numbers of international hunter-days;
• a doubling of the gross income from about US$5/ha to US$10/ha;
• an increase of some 20% in net earnings from the land;
• job creation; and
• a substantial increase in economic activities supporting the hunting industry.

Potential Earnings from Sport Hunting on Land with Roan, Sable and Tsessebe Populations

The figures represent a substantial improvement in wildlife-based land-use values - which are already higher than those possible from livestock husbandry. It has been assumed that, more land with new populations of roan, sable and tsessebe could be added to the existing areas of communal land. Assuming that present densities of roan and tsessebe in the given area are around 0.1/km2 and the density of sable is about 0.2/km2, it would take about 25 years with population growth rates of 10% per annum to reach the required densities. Any immigration from Botswana would shorten this time.

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Caprivi

The gross income from the sport hunting almost doubles as a result of including substantial numbers of roan, sable and tsessebe into the wildlife community. However, the costs of realising this income also increase so that the net income produced is only some 18% higher. Alternative configurations of safari hunting operations could be developed which improve the profit margin. The amounts set for trophy fees and for daily rates are not independent and are very much up to the individual operator. The hunting client will take into account the combination of both in choosing a safari (i.e. the 'bottom line'). However, the prices which have been used are representative of the sport hunting industry in southern and central Africa. All costs and income have been internalised within a safari operator's budget.

The apparent profit of US$5.7/ha (a 130% profit margin for the operating cost of US$4.4/ha) would not, of course, accrue to the operator. This is the sum from which all state revenue or community income would be derived and it is obvious that a very large surplus would be available. If the safari operator were left with a 50% profit on operations (US$2.2/ha), the balance available as concession rental or community income under any form of joint venture or would be US$3.5/ha. This is almost double the projected cash income for most conservancies in the Caprivi.

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Commercial Farms

It should also be expected that the development of substantial populations of roan, sable and tsessebe on private farms will increase their viability. Barnes (et al 2001) state that in the medium to long term the comparative advantages of land use based on domestic livestock can be expected to decline as international subsidies are phased out. They also point out that the comparative advantages of wildlife land uses can be expected to increase over time, due to continuing rapid expansion in international tourist markets, increasing scarcity of wildlife elsewhere, and the development of markets to capture international wildlife non-use values as income. Their results show that commercial livestock ranching has limited potential to compete economically with wildlife use because it is capital intensive and requires access to external markets.