Elephants occur across the entire north of Namibia (Figure 8) with two main subpopulations in the north-east and the north-west. The subpopulations are not genetically isolated since they are weakly linked through the 'occasional' range in the central area which includes a small resident population of about 20 animals in the Mangetti. The north-western range appears to be expanding at the moment. Elephants are being seen as far south as the Ugab River and in all of the river catchments which flow westwards to the Atlantic Ocean in the north. As yet, the extreme north-western part of the potential range along the Cunene has not been re-colonised although elephants were present in this area up until 1990. Almost certainly there are sporadic movements of elephants between the two permanent ranges - although it would be unlikely for animals in the extreme west of the north-west range and the extreme east of the north-east range ever to be involved in these movements.

The north-western range appears to be expanding at the moment. Elephants are being seen as far south as the Ugab River and in all of the river catchments which flow westwards to the Atlantic Ocean in the north (Loutit, Leggatt, Owen-Smith, pers.comm.). As yet, the extreme north-western part of the potential range (the watersheds of rivers such as the Otjinjange which flow into the Cunene) has not been re-colonised although elephants were present in this area up until 1990. Lindeque (pers.comm.) has speculated that, because all of the elephants in this area were killed, the 'institutional memory' of the remaining elephants in the south may not include a knowledge of the northern watersheds and the Cunene River.

West of Etosha, human populations are relatively sparse and most of the land between Etosha and the Skeleton Coast is organised into conservancies - which should augur well for the continued expansion of the elephant range. North of Etosha are some of the highest density human populations in Namibia reaching up to 100 persons/km2. IThe limit of the occasional range of elephant can be regarded as the contour line demarcating human densities greater than 1 person/25km2 (Figure 8). In this part of the north-western range conflicts between humans and elephants is intense, especially in those areas where conservancies have not been established.

The situation in the north-east is very different. A population in excess of 100,000 elephants in Botswana is resulting in significant dispersal of elephants into the Caprivi, Khaudum and Nyae Nyae conservancy. Elephants are being seen for the first time in 20 years in many parts of the eastern Caprivi from which they have been absent. Surveys done by Botswana in 1994 (ULG 1994) saw no elephants in Forest Reserve or Eastern Floodplains.The West Caprivi Game Reserve (Babwata) and the Forest Reserve in eastern Caprivi have always held very few elephants because of the paucity of surface water. Rodwell (1995) remarked that elephants were seasonal inhabitants in these areas. However, in the most recent surveys, substantial numbers were recorded. Much of the range in the Caprivi shown as 'occasional' in the African Elephant Specialist Group data (AfrESG 2002) should now more correctly be treated as 'permanent'.

It would be extremely difficult if not impossible to make a distinction between elephants resident in the Caprivi and elephants dispersing seasonally from Botswana, so dynamic is the situation. Because the Caprivi is no more than a long narrow strip between Botswana, Zambia and Angola, it could be regarded simply as a transit area for elephant dispersal. This has two major implications for elephant conservation - firstly, the need for transboundary management becomes obvious and, secondly, if biodiversity is to be conserved in the Caprivi and Khaudum/Nyae Nyae areas, large numbers of elephants remaining for too long in these areas will need to be discouraged - particularly in the riparian and floodplain habitats.