The elephant range in Namibia is expanding at the moment. Much of what was classified as 'occasional range' in AfrESG (2002) has become 'permanent range' and it is of interest to speculate where elephants might occur 25 years from now (Figure 9).

Let's assume that:

1. Elephants will be able to realise their real values in world markets for both tourism and for commodities such as ivory and skin. This would offset the negative values presently perceived by many communal land residents and private landholders.
2. The present encouraging trends in increased devolution of proprietary rights over wildlife to private and communal landholders continues. This would create the incentive for increased investment in wildlife-based land use by individuals and groups. As long as elephants are viewed as State 'property' and their use is regulated by the State, this assumption will not be satisfied.

Given that these conditions are met, the stage would be set for a major shift in the balance between wildlife and agriculture as competing land uses. Already significant areas of communal and private land outside the parks are under wildlife management and these areas are the key to future elephant range expansion. Given the present encouraging trends, it would be reasonable to expect that

• in the extreme north-west, elephants should sooner or later occupy the northern-most rivers (Sechomib, Nadas, Munutum and Engo) and the drainage basins of the Cunene river (where they occurred in the recent past);
• The southern limit of this range is presently the Ugab River but there are no obstacles preventing range expansion as far south as the Swakop river where they occurred in the 19th century (Alexander 1838);
• The large block of private farms south of Etosha would become far more tolerant towards elephants (several hundred elephants have been shot as 'problem animals' on this land over the past thirty years) and would welcome them as part of their wildlife species mix;
• In the communal lands north of Etosha, elephants would expand up to the limit where human densities exceed 25 persons per km2;
• East of Etosha, the present tenuous linkages between Namibia's eastern and western elephant subpopulations should become greatly strengthened, taking in the small relict population in Mangetti game reserve.
• With the recent rapid expansion of elephants in Khaudum and Nyae Nyae conservancy, there is no reason why the elephant range along the eastern boundary of Namibia might not expand southwards to the 22º line of latitude.
• The short distance between Khaudum and Mahango national parks is being traversed by elephants at the moment and should soon become a permanent feature of the range.
• From the results of the most recent elephant surveys (September 2004), the entire Caprivi (other than the densely populated area around Katima Mulilo) can probably regarded as permanent elephant range.