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Figure 12: Elephant population estimates for Etosha
and the North-west

Elephant estimates for Namibia
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Etosha National Park
The first elephants (in recent times) appeared in Etosha
in the 1950s. The population increased fairly rapidly after
1966 reaching 2,800 animals by 1983. This increase exceeds
any growth possible from natural reproduction. At a growth
rate of 4.56% (see section on reproduction), it would have
required 614 elephants in 1950 or 1,253 elephants in 1966
to attain a population of 2,800 elephants in 1983. It must
therefore be presumed that it was due to an influx of animals
from areas outside Etosha. This would have coincided with
the period of intensive illegal hunting by the South African
Defence Forces in the north-west (1975-1983) and the hunting
pressure may have contributed to the immigration into the
park. Since 1983 the Etosha population has fluctuated between
500-2,500 animals.
The North-West
In the 1950s and 1960s there were more elephants in the north-west
than in Etosha National Park. The build-up of elephants in
Etosha after 1970 coincides with the period of illegal hunting
by South African Defence Forces in the north-west (Figure
12). Viljoen (1987,1988) documented over 100 elephant carcases
in the north-west between 1980-1983 and Loutit (2004) recorded
a further 58 carcases after 1987. Owen-Smith (2002) asserts
that less than 70 elephants survived in the western areas
by 1982 but this claim is at variance with a number of surveys
between 1976 and 1982 which showed at least 200 elephants.
However, the population remained depressed as a result of
hunting during this period and, significantly, the Etosha
population increased sharply. From 1986-2004 the north-west
population has increased from some 300 animals to about 800
– a rate which is marginally higher than might be expected
from the intrinsic growth rate and requires no assumption
that the population has been augmented from Etosha.
Lindeque (1988) has pointed out that a single regional population
occupies Etosha and the North-west and that migrations
in and out of Etosha National Park take place continuously.
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